Lou Brock Redux?

Pandora’s Box

(This blog originally appeared at BYTO on the day after the Johan Santana trade)

Today was a hard day to be a Twins fan, there’s no way to hide it. Trading Santana period was tough, but we had all steeled ourselves for that reality about midway through last season when he pronounced that he no longer wanted to be part of a team that didn’t seem committed to winning. What made it doubly galling was that after hearing the names of great young players tossed out for months on end, the Twins ended up with neither Phil Hughes nor Jon Lester. Neither Melky Cabrera nor Jacoby Ellsbury nor even Fernando Martinez. Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie, Mike Pelfry, and the rest of you can sleep soundly tonight; your friends can come help you stay put (Its easier than moving).

The coming days and weeks will show whether or not Hughes et. Al. was ever really available or if what happened at the winter meetings was a lot of saber rattling. Martinez at least seemed like a good place to start, and seemed within reach. It would be easy to say that Smith really overplayed his hand or that he got taken by an older and wiser GM in Minaya, but as Peter Gammons pointed out, Smith walked into an untenable situation and if the Yankees weren’t willing to deal Hughes after all, then the Red Sox had a much smaller incentive to make a deal, and Smith’s actual leverage is pretty much gone. Toss in reports that Johan and his agent, Peter Greenberg, were putting pressure on the team to get this done NOW and you can see the situation for it was. Smith was SOL from the moment he took that podium to accept the job as Twins GM.

Fans can be bitter about what happened, and perhaps they should be. Plenty of people have pointed out that after forcing a tax increase to pay for his new ballpark, built for the specific purpose of fielding a competitive team, Pohlad refused to pony up the cash. Reports are circulating now that Johan turned down a 5 year 100 million dollar deal, which, if true, would severely weaken what good will there still is for Johan in Minnesota. Maybe a Twins offer of 7 years/144 million wouldn’t have been good enough, maybe Johan just wanted out after all, but a lot of fans would have liked to see a little more effort to keep the ace lefty we had groomed for years.

But what’s done is done. Assuming Omar Minaya ponies up the cash and that none of the Mets prospects have a degenerative hip condition ala Adam Jones, Johan is gone. In his place, 4 of the unluckiest players in history. Carlos Gomez, Delois Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey must collectively feel like Ernie Broglio, and to be honest, I pity them. They are all young players, and yet from the moment they are introduced, they will fight the uphill battle of having to prove their worth vis-à-vis the greatest pitcher of the century so far. Is it fair to compare them to Broglio? Of course not! Broglio was a 20 game winner when he was traded; the four ex-Mets have barely played 20 MLB games combined. Kidding aside, I think its time we give these four players a fair shake and look at them outside of the fact that they were traded for Johan Santana.

First, Carlos Gomez. Gomez comes in with serious skill already in place. He has game-changing speed and a great arm. He could probably step into CF right now, his defense is that good. He has great bat speed, but struggles hitting for power and has questionable plate discipline. Oh, yeah, he’s also 22. His top comparables are: Rocco Baldelli before his injury, Lastings Milledge, Frank Diaz and Hanley Ramierez. Not a bad bunch to be compared to. The big knock on him, as on new teammate Delmon Young, is plate discipline. Joe Vavra will have to take both of them aside and teach them how to wait a pitcher out to get a good pitch, but at least they can watch Mauer, who is probably patient to a fault. Gomez can make an immediate impact, but would probably benefit from everyday play down in AAA to see if he can improve his power and his discipline.

Next, Kevin Mulvey. Mulvey has 4 solid pitches and throws strikes, a big plus in the Twins eyes. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but if he mixes well, he can be fairly effective. He reminds me a bit of Kevin Slowey and Brad Radke. Guys you’d HATE to have on your fantasy team, but you probably won’t mind seeing on the hill for your team. Projections say nothing more than a back end of the rotation starter, but if he can pick one pitch as his out pitch and work around that, he may move up towards the three spot.

Phil Humber, third in line. Phil used to be as untouchable a prospect as there was, and in a way he still is. Then, he was so good, you couldn’t package enough talent to get him, now, most teams won’t touch him with a 39 ½ foot pole. What happened? Tommy John surgery made him a shell of the pitcher he once was, and at 25, he is the oldest of the ex-Mets. He has a true out pitch in his curveball, but it no longer bites the way it once did and curveballs that don’t curve are like sinkers that don’t sink: homer bait. Last year was Humber’s first full season back from the surgery and he underwhelmed most people. I look at Humber a bit like Kubel. Huge injury, huge setback, huge chance of failure. Kubel is slowly coming back to be the player we hoped he would be, Humber has a chance to do the same. Will he? Who knows, but he has a better chance in this organization than he did with the Mets. Humber is not the lost cause that many make him out to be, but he is also the least likely of this group to succeed.

Lastly, and most enigmatically, Delois Guerra. Guerra just turned 19, but already put up decent number is high-A ball. He is the furthest away from helping the Twins, but he may also prove to be the best player in the deal. He has a huge frame: 6’5” 200 pounds, so he shouldn’t be a breakdown concern, but his innings will be closely watched. Guerra has 2 big league pitches, a fastball that has risen from the mid-80s when he started in rookie ball to near 94MHP. His change is mediocre, and he needs to learn to control it better, but the Twins minor league staff is pretty good at assessing pitchers and helping them develop. Guerra excites me more than anyone else in this deal. The Twins scouts are among the best in the league at finding raw pitchers and getting them developed. Liriano was a throw-in to the AJ deal, Johan himself was a rule 5 pick, Guerra’s top comparable is King Felix. Having even 1 pro-ready pitch at 19 is great, and unlike the Mets, the Twins won’t rush him up through the system.

So, was it a good deal? No. Not now anyway. If Guerra turns into Felix Hernandez sans injury, will it be worth it? Getting closer. If Gomez turns into a version of CoCo Crisp who can throw? If Mulvey turns out to be Brad Radke? If? IF? IF? It is impossible to know now, and it will be impossible until Guerra gets to the majors. Once that happens, debate away, but until then, lets give these guys the benefit of the doubt. They didn’t want to be traded for Johan Santana, I guarantee it. Let them develop, and in a few years, who knows, we may be stocked with solid pitching, glad to have a lead off hitter like Gomez and poised to contend in a brand new stadium. Or we may have gotten hosed like the Cubs did for Brock. Only time will tell.